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GLOBAL WARMING AND CLIMATE CHANGE: ITS IMPACT ON EMERGENCE AND SPREAD OF INFECTIOUS DISEASES IN SOME SELECTED COMMUNITIES IN PANKSHIN LGA

ABSTRACT

The study was designed to assess Global Warming and Climate Change: Its impact on emergence and spread of Infectious Diseases in some selected communities in Pankshin LGA. The population of the study comprises of 500 inhabitants of Pankshin Community with 120 sampled respondents. The study employed descriptive survey design. Three research questions guided the study. The three research questions were analyzed using statistical mean. The results of the study revealed that Global warming and climate change are interconnected phenomena that refer to the long-term alteration of Earth’s climate patterns resulting from human activities and natural processes which sometimes come along with spread of infectious diseases. And that, their relationship results to increase in the risk of epidemic infectious diseases. The finding also on the hypothesis testing at 5% level of significance reveals that global warming and climate change have significant impact on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in selected communities in Pankshin LGA. Based on the findings of the study, the researcher concluded that Global warming and climate change is generated by human activities at a local and global scale. The activities that lead to anthropogenic disturbances of the environment—primarily climate change, land-use change, urbanization, and global movement of humans, other organisms, and goods—affect societies and ecosystems in ways that favor the emergence of novel infectious diseases in human populations, expansions or shifts of diseases to new geographic regions, or the re-emergence of diseases in various places. The study recommends among others that, there should be Policy put in place to build human research capacity on issues of global warming and climate change which will include prioritization of infectious disease research and surveillance at the human wildlife interface within the context of climate change, funding prioritizing scientists from minority groups, and neglected geographic regions.

TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background to the Study        –           –           –           –           –           –           1

1.2       Statement of the Problem       –           –           –           –           –           –           5

1.3       Purpose of the Study –           –           –           –           –           –           –           6

1.4       Research Question      –           –           –           –           –           –           –           6

1.5       Research Hypothesis –           –           –           –           –           –           –           6

1.6       Significance of the Study       –           –           –           –           –           –           7

1.7       Theoretical/Conceptual Framework   –           –           –           –           –           8

1.8       Scope and Delimitation of the study  –           –           –           –           –           8

1.9       Operational Definition of Terms        –           –           –           –           –           8

CHAPTER TWO

LITERATURE REVIEW

CHAPTER THREE

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.0       INTRODUCTION     –           –           –           –           –           –           –           27

3.1       RESEARCH DESIGN           –           –           –           –           –           –           27

3.2       POPULATION AND SAMPLE        –           –           –           –           –           27

3.2.1    Population       –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           27

3.2.2    Sample            –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           28

3.3       SAMPLING TECHNIQUES –           –           –           –           –           –           29

3.4       INSTRUMENT (S) FOR DATA COLLECTION     –           –           –           29

3.4.1    Description of the Instrument –           –           –           –           –           –           29

3.4.2    Procedure for Instrument Development         –           –           –           –           30

3.5       VALIDITY AND RELIABILITY OF INSTRUMENT        –           –           30

3.5.1    Validity           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           30

3.5.2    Reliability       –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           31

3.6       PROCEDURE AND DATA COLLECTION            –           –           –           31

3.7       METHOD OF DATA ANALYSIS   –           –           –           –           –           31

CHAPTER FOUR

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

4.1       Presentation of Bio Data        –           –           –           –           –           –           33

4.2       Analysis of Research Questions         –           –           –           –           –           34

4.3       Testing of Hypothesis             –           –           –           –           –           –           41

4.4       Discussion of the Findings     –           –           –           –           –           –           42

CHAPTER FIVE

SUMMARY, CONCLUSION, AND RECOMMENDATIONS

5.1       Summary of the Findings       –           –           –           –           –           –           45

5.2       Conclusion      –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           46

5.3       Recommendation        –           –           –           –           –           –           –           46

5.4       Limitation of the Study          –           –           –           –           –           –           47

5.5       Suggestions for Further Studies         –           –           –           –           –           48

REFERENCE           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           49

APPENDIX    –           –           –           –           –           –           –           –           53

CHAPTER ONE

INTRODUCTION

1.1       Background to the Study

            The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has anticipated, with high confidence, that global warming and climate change will amplify health threats worldwide (IPCC, 2018), which is supported by the fact that the life cycles of many infectious agents are inextricably linked to climate. Multiple studies have shown that variation in temperature, precipitation, and humidity affects the transmission and distribution of infectious diseases (Anwar, Anwar, Ayub, Nawaz, Hyder, Khan, et al, 2019). Nevertheless, the magnitude, direction, and strength of the impact of climate change upon infectious disease transmission remains unclear. To determine what further research is needed to advance a given field in scientific research it is often necessary to synthesize previous work.

According to IPCC (2018), global warming and Climate change refer to long-term increase in Earth’s average surface temperature, primarily due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. It also refers to long-term statistical shifts of the weather, including changes in the average weather condition or in the distribution of weather conditions around the average (i.e. extreme weather events). Despite many discussions on the causes for global warming and climate change, there is a general recognition of an on-going global climate change and the non-minor role of human activities during this process (IPCC, 2018). According to the European Environment Agency (EEA, 2008), the global average surface temperature has increased by 0.74 °C in the 20th century, the global sea level has been rising 1.8 mm per year since 1961, and the Arctic sea ice has been shrinking by 2.7% per decade. Moreover, mountain glaciers are contracting, ocean water becomes more acidic, and extreme weather events occur more often. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicted an average temperature rise of 1.5–5.8 °C across the globe during the 21st century, accompanied by increased extreme and anomalous weather events including heat-waves, floods and droughts (IPCC, 2018). Responding to global changes by pursuing a sustainable development is a major challenge to human society (Weng et al., 2013; Yang et al., 2013). Global warming and Climate change can affect human health (Costello et al., 2019; Epstein, 2017; Kovats et al., 2000; Willox et al., 2015), especially when infectious diseases are concerned (Altizer et al., 2013; Bouzid et al., 2018; Epstein, 2001a). Three components are essential for most infectious diseases: an agent (or pathogen), a host (or vector) and transmission environment (Epstein, 2001a). Some pathogens are carried by vectors or require intermediate hosts to complete their lifecycle. Appropriate climate and weather conditions are necessary for the survival, reproduction, distribution and transmission of disease pathogens, vectors, and hosts. Therefore, changes in climate or weather conditions may impact infectious diseases through affecting the pathogens, vectors, hosts and their living environment (Epstein, 2001a; Wu et al., 2014). Studies have found that long-term climate warming tends to favor the geographic expansion of several infectious diseases (Epstein et al., 1998; Ostfeld and Brunner, 2015; Rodó et al., 2013), and that extreme weather events may help create the opportunities for more clustered disease outbreaks or outbreaks at non-traditional places and time (Epstein, 2000). Overall, climate conditions constrain the geographic and seasonal distributions of infectious diseases, and weather affects the timing and intensity of disease outbreaks (Kuhn et al., 2005; Wu et al., 2014).

A warming and unstable climate is playing an ever-increasing role in driving the global emergence, resurgence and redistribution of infectious diseases (McMichael et al., 1996). Many of the most common infectious diseases, and particularly those transmitted by insects, are highly sensitive to climate variation (Kuhn et al., 2005; Tian et al., 2015a). New and resurgent vector-borne communicable diseases, including dengue, malaria, hantavirus and cholera, are evident widely (Tian et al., 2015b; Watson et al., 1997; Yu et al., 2015). Other infectious diseases, such as salmonellosis (Chretien et al., 2014), cholera and giardiasis, may show increased outbreaks due to elevated temperature and flooding. Accordingly, long-term collaborations are called upon to develop Early Warning Systems (EWS) for infectious diseases by considering climate change (e.g. Watson et al., 1997). The successful prediction of a rising malaria risk in Botswana, which initiated timely anticipatory mitigations, was a successful effort of such (Thomson et al., 2006).

According to Epstein (2021), climate change and global warming is an important factor affecting human health, exerting an influence on the incidence of infectious diseases, as well as time and intensity of the epidemic emergence. Long-term warming trends encourage geographic expansion of dangerous threats such as malaria, while extreme weather events affect the outbreaks. Global warming and instability of the climate play an increasingly important role in stimulating the global emergence, resurgence and transmission of infectious diseases (Michael, Haines, Slooff, and Kovats, 2016). Since 1975 the World Health Organization has reported the occurrence of more than 30 new diseases, including AIDS, Ebola, Lyme disease, legionellosis, enterohemorrhagic colitis, and new hantavirus diseases as well as the recent pandemic (Covid-19) which are strongly link to global warming and climate change (WHO, 2014). The resurgence of old diseases such as malaria, tuberculosis, and cholera also has been reported. Declining social conditions and suspension of public health programs has caused more intense disease transmissions from human to human (e.g. tuberculosis, diphtheria) (Epstein, 2021). Transmission of infections involving two or more species (mosquitoes, ticks, deer, birds, rodents, and humans) reflects changes in social (suburban sprawl), ecological, and climatic conditions. Global warming and Climate change are inherently linked to globalization, which is caused by a reduction of many barriers in international relations, so that the globe becomes a space where the boundaries between people, countries, and regions are fading. According to Scholte (2020), global relations are formed by social interaction and relationships that exceed the geographical territories. Globalization is driven and enforced by many factors: economic processes, technological development, political influence, cultural and value systems, and natural and social environmental factors. These various factors, being a part of the globalization process, directly and indirectly affect health on many different levels.

Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) pose a threat to humans, domestic animals, and wildlife (Woolhouse & Gowtage-Sequeria 2005). In recent decades, the interconnectedness between global change—including climate change, land-use change, and increased global mobility— and infectious disease emergence and spread has become a more widely accepted phenomenon (Barnosky et al. 2012, Daily & Ehrlich 1996, Myers 2017, Plowright et al. 2021). Concurrently, we have witnessed an increased rate of emergence of novel infectious diseases [e.g., Hendra, Nipah, severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), Middle East respiratory syndrome (MERS), swine flu (influenza A virus H1N1), and COVID-19], establishment of diseases in new geographic regions (e.g., West Nile, Zika, dengue, yellow fever, and Lyme), and a resurgence of previously controlled diseases (e.g., dengue, Ebola, malaria, and hantavirus diseases). The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic that continues to disrupt daily life, in addition to the escalating climate crisis, raises two critical questions: Why are diseases emerging and expanding so rapidly? How can we prevent future planetary health crises?

This research presents a systematic literature review on the scientific evidences for the impact of global warming and climate change on human infectious diseases. The study examines the observed and predicted impacts of changes in major climate variables and extreme weather events on the pathogen, host, and transmission of human infectious diseases.

1.2       Statement of the Problem

The issue of global warming and climate change has become a pressing concern worldwide, with significant implications for various aspects of human life. One area of particular concern is the potential impact of global warming and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases. This problem is especially relevant for selected communities in Pankshin Local Government Area (LGA) and requires careful examination.

Scholarly findings have established that global warming and climate change can have several direct and indirect effects on the patterns and dynamics of infectious diseases. For instance, Epstein, (2021) cited in the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2018) that rising temperatures and altered precipitation patterns can create suitable environments for disease vectors like mosquitoes, ticks, and rodents, thereby increasing the transmission rates of vector-borne diseases. Also, higher temperatures can accelerate the replication and development of pathogens within vectors, leading to shorter incubation periods and higher infection rates in humans.

However, by studying the existing scholarly findings and conducting specific research in the selected communities of Pankshin LGA, a comprehensive understanding of the impact of global warming and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases can be achieved. This knowledge will provide a basis for developing targeted interventions, public health strategies, and policies to mitigate the risks and protect the health of the communities most affected by these climate-driven changes in disease dynamics.

1.3       Purpose of the Study

The primary purpose of this study is to assess global warming and climate change: Its impact on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in some selected communities in Pankshin LGA. Specifically, the study seeks to:

1. Examine the impact of global warming and climate change on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the selected communities in Pankshin LGA
2. Determine the relationship between climate change and the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the selected communities.
3. Examine the historical and current patterns of infectious diseases in the selected communities

1.4       Research Question

            The following research questions guided the study:

1. What is the impact of global warming and climate change on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the selected communities in Pankshin LGA?
2. What is the relationship between climate change and the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in the selected communities of Pankshin LGA?
3. What are the historical and current patterns of infectious diseases in the selected communities of Pankshin LGA?

1.5       Research Hypothesis

For the successful completion of the study, the following research hypotheses were formulated by the researchers;

H₀: Global warming and climate change does not have significant impact on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in selected communities in Pankshin LGA

H_a: Global warming and climate change have significant impact on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in selected communities in Pankshin LGA

1.6       Significance of the Study

The study’s significance lies in its potential to inform and empower teachers, conservationists, community members, and policy makers.

The findings of this study will provide teachers with a deeper understanding of the relationship between global warming, climate change, and infectious diseases. This knowledge can be incorporated into their curriculum, enabling them to educate students about the potential health risks associated with climate change and promote sustainable practices to mitigate these risks.

The findings of this study will guide conservationists in developing targeted strategies to mitigate these risks which involve initiatives such as preserving natural habitats, promoting biodiversity, and implementing sustainable land-use practices to reduce disease transmission.

The study will raise awareness among community members about the potential health impacts of global warming and climate change. This knowledge will empower individuals to take proactive measures to protect their health, such as adopting preventive measures against disease vectors, ensuring proper sanitation practices, and seeking timely medical assistance.

Finally, the study findings will provide policy makers with evidence-based information on the impact of global warming and climate change on infectious diseases in the selected communities. This will enable them to develop informed policies and strategies to address the issue effectively, allocate resources efficiently, and implement targeted interventions to protect public health.

1.7       Theoretical/Conceptual Framework

            The theoretical/conceptual framework for studying the impact of global warming and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in selected communities in Pankshin LGA can be based on the One Health approach and the framework of climate-health interactions.

By adopting the One Health approach and utilizing the framework of climate-health interactions, the theoretical/conceptual framework provides a comprehensive basis for studying the impact of global warming and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases in selected communities in Pankshin LGA. It facilitates the integration of environmental, animal, and human health considerations and guides the analysis of climate- and health-related data to inform effective mitigation and adaptation strategies

1.8       Scope and Delimitation of the study

The study would examine global warming and climate change: Its impact on emergence and spread of infectious diseases in some selected communities in Pankshin LGA. The study will focus on some selected villages of Pankshin Community.

1.9       Operational Definition of Terms

It is essential to clearly define the terms utilized in this research to guarantee that readers possess a thorough comprehension of the study. The subsequent terms will be outlined:

Climate change: Refers to long-term shifts and alterations in weather patterns and average climatic conditions across the Earth.

Emergence and spread of infectious diseases: It simply refer to the process by which new or existing infectious diseases arise and disseminate within a population or across different communities or geographical areas. Factors such as environmental changes, human behavior, and microbial evolution can contribute to the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

Emergence: It refers to the process of coming into existence or becoming visible or known. In the context of infectious diseases, it refers to the appearance or occurrence of a new disease or the reemergence of an existing disease in a population or geographic area.

Global warming: It refers to the long-term increase in the average temperature of the Earth’s atmosphere, primarily caused by the buildup of greenhouse gases due to human activities such as burning fossil fuels and deforestation.

Impact: It simply refers to the effect or influence that an event, action, or phenomenon has on something or someone. In the context of the study, it refers to the consequences or outcomes resulting from global warming and climate change on the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

Infectious diseases: It simply refers to illnesses caused by pathogenic microorganisms, such as bacteria, viruses, parasites, or fungi, that can be transmitted from one person to another, or from animals to humans. Examples include influenza, malaria, HIV/AIDS, and COVID-19.

Spread: It refers to the dissemination or transmission of a disease from one individual to another, or from one location to another.